u/Vstriker26

The absolute peak, assuming absolutely everything goes right, is 5. I’ve seen it, so let me preface that this is under a context where WH9 manages to win best picture, which is a small but existing chance. That would lead to a peak of Best Picture, Malkovich (Lead), Rockwell (Supporting), Original Screenplay, and Carter Burwell’s Original Score. I currently only have the original screenplay predicted with Malkovich within winning distance.

I’ve seen Elsinore, Colman has zero shot at the nom, it’s original screenplay and it won’t nor should get the screenplay nomination. The movie’s entire crux is Scott being a good actor.

Have seen it, it is, but calling it a Rogen film is a disservice, he’s barely in it. It’s Abbi Jacobson’s film (Katie from Mitchells Vs the Machines) and her mother played by Julia-Louis Dreyfuss is the main supporting performance (Val from Thunderbolts for the average Schaff viewer)

Statistically I think it’s a terrible bet but I recognize that if there’s been a film by Guadagnino or a film at NYFF that gets in BP, as of now, it would certainly be Artificial

I’m not a pussy. Give me all 3 at once (EG and PEKKA evos)

Daniel Craig seemed locked and he missed BAFTA of all things. Apprentice is a strong example of people not wanting to deal too much with these topics as well.

While it 100% won’t stay as is, it basically is right now. It has some of the best critic scores ever and literally the best Letterboxd score ever

I think it’ll be saved by actually having big names starring

Why tho?

While I absolutely do not disagree with anything you’re saying, I assume OP means films that have not been seen public yet, including film festivals

NYFF premieres and Guadagnino films always get predicted and they never work out. We do the same exercise every single year. Just the last two years, we’ve had 3 Guadagnino releases. All of them were predicted for Oscars. Every single one walked away with 0 nominations.

I saw it at TIFF and thought Fjord was an incredibly thought provoking and engaging portrait that makes people actually wrestle with some of their beliefs, and even thought it won’t be for everyone, I feel good that it’s NEON’s #1

I’m mixed between Dune or PHM (I only feel like one gets in) but I don’t get how everyone has so much faith in the Invite and I’m beyond certain Wilde has no shot at director.

Goodbye Artificial, PHM, The Invite, and All of a Sudden, hello Possible Love and Fjord

The TIFF People’s Choice Award often goes 2/3 and it beat The Debut, WH9, Club Kid, and MANY others for the position. I Play Rocky is real.

I myself saw I Play Rocky at TIFF, the festival it debuted at, and it truly is a phenomenal film. Ippolito gives THE performance of the year with the possible exception of Inde Navarrate. Don’t really want him to be Rocky himself though.

The Invite, ESPECIALLY in Director. People will look at you with a straight face and say Eisenberg won’t get in because of actor/director bias and tell you Wilde is getting nominated. Well at least Eisenberg wasn’t the main character

I assume not. The miss here is biographical maybe?

If you see it, you know Malkovich is the de-facto lead. You could call Rockwell co-lead but Malkovich is THE #1

https://a24awards.com

Moore is the sole lead, Giamatti is confirmed running for supporting actor

Really think people are overestimating The Invite, otherwise I mostly agree

And to be extra fair he does so with the point that he dies at the end to show it doesn’t pay and maybe he wants to get that to other audiences

We don’t talk about that. Anyway I did call both I Play Rocky and Inde Navarrette

The big strength this has is we’ve heard overwhelming acclaim for its test screenings