Arsenal are 86.91% likely to win the Premier League (according to my calculations)

I’m about to get severely downvoted, but rest assured, my methods were extremely scientific.

First I googled the probabilities of the outcomes for each of Arsenal and City’s remaining games, and took the top Google result for each game (sites were Opta, gamestatistics and data something).

Then I mapped each of the 81 different outcomes to a probability tree and calculated the probability for either team coming out top on points, and the probability they would finish on equal points.

For equal points, I then googled the probability that Arsenal win on goal difference vs City. The site I ended up on (first Google result) adjusted so that the probability was only in the case that points were level at the end (e.g. if City lose matches, drop goal difference, but also don’t end up level on points, that probability isn’t considered in the goal difference probability, which was ideal for my calculations since it is already considered in the points leader probability).

In the event that goal difference is the same, City pretty much just win in that scenario, since they already have more goals for, and a better head to head record).

So for the outright winner, City take most of the share of the 11% from finishing on the same points, however, Arsenal still end up with 86.91% likelihood that they will win the Prem.