Defense MAY be overtuned

Traded for a decent pitcher from the Royals, thinking he'd be a good #3 - and he turned into a Cy Young candidate. Either I've assembled a god tier defensive squad or KC tried trotting out 9 first basemen.

2037 was the year of the trade - played 2/3 of the year in KC and 1/3 in NY. LOOKIT THAT WHIP AND BABIP

https://preview.redd.it/ptewtoy3oclh1.png?width=1480&format=png&auto=webp&s=66b3297a44923851aaa6f2ea194bda402b23b50d

https://preview.redd.it/zyr4d4xboclh1.png?width=1776&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c468e0f669b807db36205fb77b897256f53b5a6

20-80 Scale NYY KC
C - Block/Frame/Arm 70/65/55 65/60/70
1B - Height/Range/Error/Arm/DP 6'6"/50/45/40/50 6'2"/40/35/35/35
2B - Range/Error/Arm/DP 65/60/50/50 65/55/60/60
3B - Range/Error/Arm/DP 50/50/60/35 55/50/65/60
SS - Range/Error/Arm/DP 70/60/60/70 50/55/40/65
LF - Range/Error/Arm 65/55/50 65/60/45
CF - Range/Error/Arm 75/55/50 60/55/60
RF - Range/Error/Arm 60/65/55 65/60/65

No idea why KC doesn't flip their SS & 2B, but that can't make THAT much of a difference, can it?

14 comments · 65% upvoted · other discussions

comments

Docholphal1

His FIP stats got significantly better, too. He just pitched lights out for you on a smaller sample size.

LogicianFlow

He's not walking anybody or giving up HRs. My two favorite things.

E_Mohde

what the other comment said about FIP is very accurate - also, you have a huge increase in defense quality at the two most important positions (SS and CF). like it’s hard to oversell how massive that change is, 50 infield range and 40 arm is barely playable on a second baseman, the Royals guy is probably racking up negative double-digits ZR before the All-Star break. the CF isn’t quite as diabolical but 60 to 75 is still a big difference.

the guy went from having the Logan O’Hoppe of shortstops behind him to having Bobby Witt and Jacob Young. going from a .310 BABIP to a .250 BABIP will give you a lot more opportunity to go on a wild run

Head_of_Lettuce

You mentioning Bobby Witt sent me a down a bit of rabbit hole. The Rays fan in me was sad you didn’t say Taylor Walls, so I peaked at the Baseball Savant leaderboards.

Why does OAA hate Walls so much? He’s at -3 on the year, good for 194th across all positions. Bobby Witt is sitting at +24, #1 in MLB.

Meanwhile Walls is sitting at +19 TZR (#2) and +18 DRS (#5). Bobby Witt is at +12 TZR (outside the top 10, not sure the exact rank) and +12 DRS (#33).

I know defensive metrics have a ton of variance, and they’re best used in multi-year sample sizes. But still, that’s a pretty contrast. I wonder what that’s about.

E_Mohde

the explanation I've read is he gets on OAA because of his positioning - he's typically in a good spot pre-contact so he gets hit because the difference between his expected success rate and his actual success rate isn't as high? but he makes the plays so his DRS reflects that

Head_of_Lettuce

Ah! I didn’t realize that’s how OAA is calculated. That makes a lot of sense, thanks.

MizukiRokushima

So I've noticed a few things:

  1. The most noticeable thing, BABIP got lower at a ridiculous rate, you have a Bobby Witt and Jacob Young lookalike playing SS and CF, meanwhile KC put Pre-Giants Luis Arraez at SS and a slightly above average corner outfielder as their CF.
  2. Walk rate goes down, your catcher does indeed have better frame than KC's one, but not by much
  3. His HR rate went down by a LOT, and looking at his ratings, his HR rate with KC is probably his true skill and is getting pretty lucky in a small sample size
  4. Overall, a pitcher with 55/50/55 rating slash look to me like a really good #2 option, longterm I don't think he's a true ace for a good team
thisusedyet [OP]

He's my #4 at the moment - apologies for the bigass picture, replies can only have one picture per comment.

Just finished another turn through the rotation, figured about halfway through the year was as good a time as any to do this (not going to make you wait a couple weeks for me to finish the season).

Painter (my ace) just came back off an injury, that's why the incredibly small sample size.

Lozano (the #2) opted out of his first contract as a International Free Agent and forced me to go through arbitration, I'm not that insane

https://preview.redd.it/v2q9qklivmlh1.png?width=4536&format=png&auto=webp&s=0de20c2bf7cb8c63005a0950cbec6d93a9b37f05

kymiller17

Its not hard for a random pitcher to pitch lights out in a small sample size of one season.

In my long running save I had a random 50 grade pitcher who jumps back and forth between my rotation and the bullpen get a full season in the rotation where he dropped his fip from a previous career low of 3.98 down to 2.71 going 8 k/9 1.9 bb/9 and .4 hr-9 all career best marks by nearly 1 each. Despite that he had a great season but only won cy young because the rest of the league didnt have anyone with m an incredible season

No-Enthusiasm8677

Ngl, I have an actual god squad defensively... 2B, 3B, and SS all have at least 75 range with very good other fielding abilities... I can definitely confirm it's overtuned... Won 95 games a few seasons back with the lowest rated offense in baseball...

tedsternator

I mean it's clear that after he joined your squad he gave up almost no walks or HRs. Your defense is obviously good but he had a ridiculous stretch of good FIP and that would carry him regardless of defense

bhkc58

Have you ever heard of 2024 Seth Lugo?

Cespedesian-Symphony

regression incoming

thisusedyet [OP]

You were right, had a bad June and August, that cost him

Still had an insane run in the Cy Young voting - Hermenegildo is my closer, so I had my #3 win the Cy, my #2 came in 2nd, my #4 that went on a run came 4th, my (injured) ace came 5th, and my closer came in 8th with a pity vote from somebody

https://preview.redd.it/06gjd6apaeph1.png?width=1987&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d7cec0ea22dd95dfeed9adc379a04a107686213