u/Ccnitro

952 post karma · 17.6k comment karma · joined Sep 2013 · moderator

Ccnitro

Somehow that reads to me more like a "Queen City of the Lake" feature but the lightning would be a welcome addition

Ccnitro

So this US-enforced fuel blockade since January 2026 and the threat of tariffs to any country that provides oil to Cuba are just "misinformation" and have no influence on Cuba's trade relationships?

Ccnitro
Ccnitro

Plus you'd still imagine he goes for 20ish yards there when he blew by those two Bears defenders, so it was realistically 14ish points. More than flex worthy.

Ccnitro

I may have a limited understanding of pass protection, but it feels crazy to me to have the back scan from the opposite side to block a blitzing DB and not have anyone chip or put hands on him before Bijan can get there. You're basically begging for a rep like this

Ccnitro

I mean, their families vacation together and Buck stood as the best man in Aikman's wedding. It's more like Buck was leading Troy on at that point if he didn't view him as more than a work friend and still did all of that.

Ccnitro

My understanding was that team doctors cleared players to play and that the hospital staff had no role in that process; my comment was literally asking if that was correct

Ccnitro

Pardon me if I'm misunderstanding, but even if he was diagnosed with a clot at the hospital, aren't the team doctors still the only ones who could have cleared him to play? I don't think independent physicians have any bearing on the football medical decision-making, just their diagnostic opinion and recommended course of treatment.

I think I'm mostly fine with the medical decisions that were made, but I don't understand how anyone let him on that field once it was clear that the calf issue was more serious than a standard cleating.

Ccnitro

Problem is twofold with limiting to top 50 IMO:

  • Some people employ specific strategies (ZeroRB, HeroRB) to take advantage of ADPs and the distribution of positions. So people could very well be betting on the upside of a Top 100 ranked WR like Jalen Coker when drafting.

  • QB, and to a lesser extent TE, get drafted later, so you miss out on injuries to whole position groups in this analysis

I'd be curious to see top 50, 100 and 150 side by side, but my gut is that it's not the highest impact players going out at a higher rate, just more players who are fantasy relevant generally.

Ccnitro

What? How are we defining this man's ability to play QB off of 2 plays, that's insane.

Is he flubbing his situational awareness these last 2 games? Absolutely. But they've also been his first 2 games back from his elbow injury, which he's playing on while still injured, which I'm sure is affecting him even if he can physically play.

Saying he's made bad decisions is objectively correct; saying he's "too stupid to play QB" is asinine and overreacting

Ccnitro

The way Palmer's been playing, there's a good chance he cedes some snaps to Keon. Combined with Moore's "gravity" on offense impacting the defensive structure and the offense being able to sustain drives better with more weapons on the field, he could very well sustain this production as a solid 2nd or 3rd option depending on the matchup.

Ccnitro

I mean, this list of 5 star QBs from 2019-2024 shows that its a fairly mixed bag in terms of finding success at the collegiate level.

Absolutely, there are no. 1 picks in that sample, as you'd expect from highly touted prospects, but there are plenty of late round flyers, UDFAs and guys that didn't even make it to the league in there as well. Given the data we have, it's not impossible—in fact, its perhaps even likely—that two QBs could fail to meet the expectations of a top rated QB prospect and just happen to be part of the same college program.

This isn't an indictment on the coaches or the players involved, just an acknowledgement that playing the quarterback position is hard and that a million factors can throw these guys off their development curve, especially at their age. Given all that uncertainty, I can't help but feel like coaching is given too much of an outsized role in determining whether these guys succeed or fail.

Ccnitro

the 2 most hyped QB prospects since Tlaw.

TLaw was hyped throughout college and put up tape to that effect. I'm not sure if Ewers and Manning tearing it up at the high school level and failing to translate to college is really the same.

I waver on how much a player's development falls on them and falls on specific coaching points, and Sark could very well still suck, but both Ewers and Manning not living up to the hype was well within the range of expected outcomes.

Ccnitro

The one at the end took me a second, but I definitely made out Holmes' face. I was actually so focused on trying to figure out which one of them it was that I didn't actually realize it was Nathan in the water with her until a few beats after.

Ccnitro

Nix can absolutely do it, we've seen him do it and they're calling downfield concepts to enable him to do it, but he's just not doing it. He's rushing through his reads and missing guys that are coming open by doing so. And when he does see them, he's turning throws down if there's an ounce of risk or muddiness to them.

Like any good young quarterback, somethings locking him up physically or mentally right now and it's holding back the offense. So I just don't see how changing the playcaller will change that when the execution of the calls seems to be the biggest problem

Ccnitro

Y'know what, that's super valid. My bad

Ccnitro

If you think a RB is exclusively responsible for his YPC, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you

Ccnitro

Even when he's getting open, the DB is almost immediately getting back in the play, and on long developing routes that's probably enough not to throw them.

I looked at Michael Wilson a few times to compare, and he's just got a suddenness to his routes that Marv showed maybe once in that whole cutup.

Ccnitro

Derrick Henry had like 2000 carries across high school and college prior to his pro career. If he got the amount of carries he's getting now earlier in his career, I think he just starts producing earlier and is maybe out of the league this year or the next instead. But the odds are he's just an absolute freak of nature: the 1 in a million who just has more tread than everyone else

Ccnitro

That'd be percentiles, which makes some sense. It's just unintuitive since PFF grades are already out of 100, so you'd imagine it'd just be the average of all of the lineman and still roughly around the 30-40 mark Baldwin is much smarter than me about the numbers stuff, so there's probably a reason, but it just didn't make sense initially

Ccnitro

I agree with you, I've never seen someone lower than 30 (I've also never seen a line as awful as the Packers but neither here nor there). But I don't know what else the 0 could mean otherwise. Maybe it's percentile, but I'm not sure how that would work if PFF grades are already out of 100? Just a data entry error by Baldwin? I know for a fact it's not ranking, so it's tough to make sense of

Ccnitro

Since it's PFF grade, it does literally mean 0 in this case. Average starter is 65ish IIRC, which bears out with the better pass pro teams on this list.

Truly abysmal.

Ccnitro

Question about PBWR: I know there's a calculation for individual players, but is the data Baldwin is pulling from considering the line as an entire unit for the ±2.5 seconds? How would it count it if all the primary blockers are engaged but an extra rusher comes within the 2.5s timeframe?

Ccnitro

Did him plus McLaurin for Ceedee to a RB needy team before his massive game this week. Feels like people are catching on to the fact that he's a RB1 contender, so you might be able to pull off a bit more

Ccnitro

What's crazy is that offensive lineman wouldn't even factor into the calculus, yet I feel like that position has been hit just as hard.

Just off the dome, I know that Carolina, Philly, LA Chargers and Detroit have all lost multiple starters on their OL either because they haven't gotten them back from the offseason, they got hurt early on in the season and are out for multiple weeks, or they were lost to a season-ending injury and aren't returning at all.