u/DiveLive
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DiveLive
DiveLive
Ha, it is. The sad part is that LINK, the robot sent to save it, still got within 12 to 15 km of Swift, but a power fault early on had already ruled out the grab.
DiveLive
Yes, it's planned to come down around 2030. Those panels are being installed because NASA expected experiments and commercial modules to need more power up until then, and in case micrometeoroid hits wear down the older arrays. NASA also says they'll help power the controlled deorbit of the station when the time comes.
DiveLive
Fair point, and NASA actually looked into it (https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/iss-deorbit-analysis-summary.pdf). You're right that the delta-v isn't huge, but the station is so heavy that it would still need a lot of propellant and a tug that doesn't exist yet. On top of that, the risk of a debris impact is much higher at around 800 km. So these solar arrays are just to keep it powered until around 2030 and help with its deorbit.
DiveLive
Brakes for now. If it breaks, the headline changes 😂
DiveLive
Fair question: 5 km was one snapshot on the morning of 18 October, not the closest they got. Run through the public orbit data, the closest passes come out at a few hundred metres on 16 and 17 October, but that data is only good to about a kilometre, so all it can honestly say is "1 km or less". LeoLabs tracks both with its own radars and says Cosmos 2612 came within roughly 500 m, though it notes exact estimates are uncertain (https://www.satellitetoday.com/government-military/2026/10/19/russian-satellite-maneuvered-within-extreme-proximity-of-iceye-satellite-leolabs-reports/)
DiveLive
Probably, and one Russia cared about. Going by the public orbit data, all those manoeuvres add up to roughly 180 m/s of delta-v, about 120 of it the plane change in May. That's more than it would take to deorbit itself, so either it carries plenty of fuel or it isn't meant to last long. My guess is the second: a satellite built to test what it can do up close, not to serve for years.
DiveLive
They got along a bit too well for two days. Now they're giving each other some space 😄
DiveLive
Hi, things have changed since yesterday's post: Cosmos 2612 has raised its orbit and is moving away from ICEYE-X36. This is the update on the current situation.
DiveLive
Ha, no new physics. It can't on its own. Holding at 5 km would take a burn to match the periods, then regular small ones to cancel the different drag, which is what stationkeeping means.
Source: the public element sets on CelesTrak, which come from US Space Force tracking. The 07:38 UTC sets for both, then the newer 12:25 UTC set for Cosmos 2612 and 15:36 UTC set for ICEYE-X36, propagated with SGP4.
DiveLive
Ha, Kosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 definitely got as close as two satellites can 😄
DiveLive
Good catch, thanks. Those sets are newer than the 07:38 UTC ones I used, and they show the gap opening: about 9 km at 12:25 UTC and 12 km at 15:37 UTC. So it isn't holding at 5 km.
The most detailed write-up I have seen so far is from Katalyst: https://www.katalystspace.com/news/katalyst-concludes-link-mission-advances-future-robotic-space-operations. According to them, LINK had an anomaly during commissioning that affected its attitude control and sent it spinning about more than one axis, briefly cutting its communications. During it, an electrical power system fault left two of its three reaction wheels unavailable.