u/blueclawsoftware

Yea I've always found it funny how much ink is spilled over unlikely voters during election season. Imagine using that framing in any other context. "Hey I know we're trailing other automakers, but our new car is the top choice for people unlikely to buy a car this year." I know people are desperate for any intel they can find, but it's kind of insane.

Yea the one thing I'm curious about in Florida will be the gap between the two races. I can see a lot of people especially in the panhandle refusing to vote for Donalds for the obvious reason. 

Still don't think it will be enough for Jolly to win. 

It's important to remember PA the only early voting is by mail (or dropbox). Which at this point people on both sides don't fully trust. I suspect e-day turnout will swamp early votes this year.

I agree. I would also say probably more meaningful to look where the parties or pulling back or increasing money at this point. 

From what I've read of that data it doesn't point to Dems losing ground. 

50plusone is another good source for this. Run by G. Elliot Morris who is another 538 alum. He's the one who has been doing the legwork on exposing fake polls the last few months.  

I prefer him over Silver because he sticks to data analysis and stays out of punditry. 

Don't feel bad for asking. I've sadly wondered how much Turek being in a wheelchair holds him back in this race.

Oh 100% agree, eliminating the 2 party stranglehold would fix a lot of problems with our system.

I also agree that there are too many elected positions. Here in Maryland, we have to vote on whether to retain certain judges for their specific court. Barring a major scandal, how is any layperson supposed to make that determination?

To be fair, there is a big gap between being perfectly informed and understanding who controls the government.

But to give these people a break, I consider myself highly informed, and it's damn near impossible to find information on the judges on our ballot, or even on some of the school board candidates, for that matter. It's gotten even worse lately with the reduction of local newspapers. Our local paper in a decent-sized metro used to break down every race with candidate positions, but now it focuses on big races like Governor or Senator.

I do wish we would tax campaign contributions to fund some kind of ballot education.

Yeah, also kind of damning that, with our electoral system, we're highly dependent on these low-information voters. Almost guaranteeing a party switch every 4 years unless the economy is booming.

I think it's fine to use early-voting data for general narratives. Especially when comparing to past elections. Basic things like "young voters are motivated" or "we're seeing high Hispanic turnout." Because those are objectively true based on the data we have. I mean, heck, that's basically what campaigns use early voting data for: indicators of where they need to focus resources to get out the vote in softer areas.

The problem is people don't really care about those stories, so everyone tries to leap to "Why this is good for x," and you can't really do that with early voting. Especially because early voting doesn't capture voter intent. We also suffer from the fact that a relatively small number of people decide most pivotal elections in this country. So not knowing the independent breakdown, or how many people voted against their registered party, makes it impossible to read the data too deeply.

All that said, it's certainly more comfortable being "in the lead" going into election day, so I don't have an issue with people trying to find some sliver of comfort in what appears to be high Dem turnout so far. They just need to brace themselves for the fact that it could evaporate if those trends don't hold on election day.

Also kind of horrifying that people can't name who is in control of the house or the senate, and are voting anyway.

Edit: To be clear they have every right to vote. Just shocking you wouldn't do a minimum of research beforehand.

Yeah, I feel like everyone is overlooking the historical trend of people voting against the president's party in the midterms. Whether they're happy with the country's direction or not. People are weird and tend to want to "balance things out". Given that happens in normal years, adding a historically unpopular president it's not hard to see why people are optimistic about Dem chances.

That said, I have a feeling we'll see Dems come up short in places like Iowa and Kansas, and all we'll hear is that it was a crushing loss and that polling was awful again.

Sure, but to me, this is a "yes and" situation. In my opinion, the system (costs, like you point out) is easier to fix once it's simplified. I mean, in the example you gave, do you think it's easier to reduce fees when 100s of insurance companies are involved, or when only the federal government is involved?

No doubt just doing M4A won't fix everything. There are tons of things broken with healthcare right now. From overcharging fees and hospital closures to private equity buying up hospitals and cutting services, and prescription drug access, the list goes on. I would love to see comprehensive reform that addresses all of it, but we have to start somewhere.

Not to mention all the other nonsense, like in-network vs. out-of-network. Which is a giant pain when switching jobs or if your company has to switch insurance providers, which happens more regularly now in an attempt to play the game of keeping costs down.

Oh 100%. Also, people who are close to retirement age and keep working just to keep insurance, or farmers, there are so many people who would benefit from not having it tied to employers.

Yea I've thought for awhile a winning message on public healthcare is focusing on what a huge burden it is on small/medium businesses to have to provide insurance. 

I wish Dems would realize that while ensuring everyone has access to care is the most important thing it's not necessarily the most important message.

Yeah, if I remember correctly, he ended up having the races flipped; he predicted Kamala would squeak it out, but that Rosen would lose. It ended up the opposite, but both races were very close.

I've been happy with the push mower. I was worried about build quality since the deck is all plastic, but it's been solid. 

Honestly cuts better than any gas mower I've had. Battery life has been good too. So far no signs of degradation after three summers. 

I don't have experience with their riding mowers. Though we likely will need a new riding mower in the next year or two and are planning to get one of their zero turns since we've been happy with the other mower. 

Yea that one was really baffling to me. And I mentioned in another comment at least put CMC in the backfield at the snap so the defense has to guess run or pass. Going empty backfield made it clear it was going to be a pass.

Yea I commented this same thing in one of the other post game threads. People keep talking about Kyle being too conservative. We went empty backfield pass plays on the 6 straight plays for the first two drives of the 4th quarter. It was the completely oppositve of conservative.

And if anything we should have been conservative and tried to run the ball and grind down the clock. All that passing led to Washington getting one final drive at the end of the game.

I think we're 6 0 and a lot of teams would kill to be as "lucky" as us. 

I totally get the struggles of people who can't get off work. I actually think every state should be required to have in person early voting that includes at least one weekend. 

My comment was mostly directed at people like OP who complain about the direction of the country and decide the best course of action is to give up. 

That must be why I immediately thought, this sounds like hell. haha

EGO has a few but they run on their removable batteries. We have their push mower and love it though.

It also isn't an EV; some of us no longer want to drive ICE cars.