u/coolwarlock

Professional Bucket Jetter

Christine Michael

Yeah, like this current offer is unbalanced unless that pick really is on the inside lane for 1.01, but Bijan + early 1st for Love and Jamo is insanely bad and it’s wild to me that some people think OP obviously should have assumed that the intended offer was the insultingly bad one and not the mildly favorable one

Neither sand nor rust

I would confidently bet money that Love is smarter than you are lmao

It’s a soft tissue injury and hamstring strains aren’t generally contact injuries where being heavier would be protective.

This is absolutely true and the only healthy way to think about things. Feels like College Football fan bases attract a disproportionate number of people who can't draw a distinction between "fan of rival team, good target for friendly banter" and "subhuman scum, I'm going to go poison their tree."

not sure that will help anyone's team but I'm sure you can find something on AO3

And Jermichael Finley's

In awe at the size of this lad. Absolute unit.

rip your client

Moves to the beat of jazz

The fact that you uncritically accepted that shit story at some point is understandable, it’s one of those factoids that’s unimportant enough to never bother googling.

The fact that you are now angrily doubling down when a Google search will instantly provide you ample evidence that it’s not true is a bit odd though, no?

Agreed and in a perfect world I’d like a required flair for “plugging my vibe coded slop site”

This is a tangent but curious what your projection is based on?

A new foe has appeared!

Can’t wait for the next phase where people overcorrect and assume that meeting the 525 threshold automatically suggests future success.

A few things here:

1st: This feels a bit like AI slop. I don't want to dogpile on that, but if you're noticing a surprising amount of criticism, a fair portion of that is that this space has been inundated with folks who dropped a couple of prompts into ChatGPT and/or had Claude vibecode them a website, got an output that looked vaguely data-science shaped, and then rushed to try to drive traffic to their baby. If that's not you, I apologize you're getting caught up in it, and applaud your effort to create original content. If that DOES describe you, I would encourage you to put a bit more effort into, at a minimum, applying a bit more skepticism and human insight into what the LLM spit out.

2nd: I would strongly suggest using a different platform to source your ADP data. Fantasyfootballcalculator apparently sources data off of a few thousand mock drafts on their platform--rather than FantasyPros (which aggregates ADPs across platform). This essentially poisons the entire analysis because rather than getting a broad view of how the market treated these players, you're getting a view of how a few users on niche website (that only hosts a few thousand mock drafts a year apparently) viewed players. This is why you're getting pushback on analysis of things like "the QB1 in ADP has never finished as QB1" when, for everyone who actually participated in drafts in the last view years, that statement is plainly wrong.

3rd: the X1 of any position in ADP will necessarily beat their ADP 0% of the time. This is not a surprising result, it is a logical certainty. The important analysis is "how often did this player yield value relative to their ADP." If the QB12 finishes QB10, is that actually a value gain on win probability vs if I draft the QB1 and he finishes QB1? Last year, I suspect the answer was "no" given how many champsionship teams had Josh Allen on them, but answering this question is hard and requires both more data and considerably more analysis than "did he beat his positional ADP?"

4th: RBs having a higher bust rate is kind of a known thing (it's one of the fundamental pillar of Zero RB) but still a useful reminder. Again, though, there is a CHASM of difference between "RBs are more likely to bust" and "drafting RB in the first round is a mistake." We are playing a game where there is an OUTSIZED reward for 95th-99th percentile outcomes. In most leagues, I get the same reward for finishing 2nd as I do for finishing last. If I draft a WR at 1.03, and he finishes as the WR14 cool he's a starter. If I draft an RB and he finishes RB40 because of injury, damn, shit. In both cases I'm very likely missing the playoffs in a competitive league unless Is smashed my other picks! What matters more is "if my 1.02 RB finishes top 5" vs "if my 1.02 WR finishes top 5" and "how likely are both of those outcomes relative to each other" (and even this is a massive oversimplification of the calculus, which requires me to look into the future and make comparisons like "Ja'Marr Chase + Derrick Henry vs Jahmyr Gibbs + Drake London" and continue playing those out across the entire board). Does not mean the broad thesis of "missing on your first round pick is catastrophically bad" is untrue, but it's not terribly helpful on its own.

Prime Jarvis Landry numbers

Did you test this model against holdout years? Did you compare how it performed head to head against ADP?

Or Dick You Van Dyke

I hope someone DMs you a picture of Dick Cheney

That's a great read, appreciate it!

It does feel a bit like we're just looking at target share run through a filter to look more "advanced stats" like though. Like I would bet YPRR is sticky purely because target share is sticky, but is YPRR sticky if we control for target share? Maybe I'm jaded from betting on Rashod Bateman based off his ELITE 2.38 YPRR metric his rookie year but struggling to think of a breakout of a player with a strong YPRR and a weak target share. Maybe AJ Brown from Rookie--> sophomore if we pretend that a 1000 yard rookie season wasn't already a breakout?

Kind of looks like it but was trying to give the benefit of the doubt. Those sorts of tracking stats always feel tough to locate. I strongly suspect that Burden didn't run enough routes for his raw efficiency stats to be terribly informative, but I truly don't know.

Curious what your source is here. Just googled it and I can’t pretend I trust what I found, but on one website Burden was 8th in yppr, but still pretty good! Only behind such luminaries as Puka, JSN, Jacoby Jones , Michael Bandy, and TheoWease.

Are any of these stats (yppr, yac, yac per target) stickier or more predictive of future production than yards, receptions and targets (all of which Burden underperformed rookie and sophomore year Odunze on on a per game basis)?

Obviously there’s a real world where Burden outperforms ADP, but this feels like cherry picking to justify an already held position more than a sober analysis of Burden’s profile