u/tyranids

680 post karma · 3,338 comment karma · joined Oct 2012

  1. 0points

    What is the purpose of Boggleheads “discussion?” (self.Bogleheads)

    6 comments

  2. 0points

    how exactly does this work? (self.thebrokenbindingsub) [Question]

    15 comments

tyranids

I mainly use dividend payment as a sign of healthy company financials and management that believes they are either large enough to want to offer some token dividend or truly has limited further expansion (either or both can be true). 

For this reason, my “dividend growth” stock picks look a lot more like “large cap growth” that happens to include dividend payment as a quality screen. I also include a high (20%+) return on invested capital requirement, because I want a company that chooses to reinvest money to compound it at above market rates. Otherwise I’d be better off just holding an index. 

tyranids

How much do you believe in Bitcoin? You’ve got 25% in “crypto” already, so if you want 3.5% dividends on your $2M and strongly believe in Bitcoin, put $700K in $STRF. That’s probably the “safest” Bitcoin related high yield thing.

If you are a big believer and don’t need the “safety” of STRF, you’d only need $540k in $SATA since they’re at 13% yield right now.

Put the rest of the portfolio in VT, VTI, or VOO and there’s your growth. 

If you want to get out of Bitcoin related things then 3.5% is pretty high yield if you still want “good growth.”

tyranids

Alright cool, so I don’t have to do anything like go in and manually select book each month.

tyranids

Yo it's been 1 week. Did it happen yet?

tyranids

It’s pretty trivial to automatically buy Bitcoin 7 days a week. Many platforms let you do this with no fee: definitely Strike, and perhaps also River, CashApp, RobinHood. I only use Strike but I know there are others. Decide how much you want to allocate and let it ride. Why bother with some complicated market timing strategy? If you’re going off backtested data then why do you believe the trends will hold? If you’re going 100% off vibes and “for the future” that seems even more foolish. 

tyranids

Of course brother. Just send your BTC here and I can transfer it wherever you need: bc1qxu2tqh83yw2500nxpayespt62f3x0ml9ufyaxc

tyranids

I don’t have a problem with using ChatGPT for writing. It’s a very effective tool. People that immediately recognize posts as such will be turned off from reading though, and a platform like Reddit with user comments will inevitably have at least one person call it out every time.

tyranids

You just have to use the LLMs more. They all structure responses like this. 

Things they love: lists, “it’s not X, it’s Y” sentence structure, over the top analogies and excessive explaining of all concepts regardless of complexity. 

tyranids

Just go growth. If you want to enforce that the companies pay dividends you can do that too. Here are the names I’m picking for 2026: NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, META, TSM, LLY, V, MA, JNJ, NFLX, ASML, COST, HD, PG, NVS, MRK, APP, ABT, LRCX

I just check a screener every year on finviz. 

tyranids

Oh, I was referring to the part from the Robinhood section: “I don't want to set 15 separate recurring buy orders and manually rebalance them every month.”

You mean you also want to adjust your buy targets every month as well?

tyranids

Ok, so you are the one that originally brought up manual rebalancing. You’re happy to do it monthly with no fear of tax implications, but not any more frequently than that? How often are your tickets diverging such that you completely stop putting new money into the biggest winners over 20 trading days?

tyranids

I am still confused why the investment thesis is structured “buy $X of Y security every week” instead of “own X% exposure to Y security in my portfolio.” Obviously they are different goals.

tyranids

I like M1. If something in your portfolio is outperforming your conviction (growing faster than everything else, becoming overweight), why do you want to fomo an even greater percentage of your money into it? It’s ok to change your target allocations and initiate rebalances. I’ve always viewed M1 as offering more of a longer term asset allocation target, rather than “each deposit split as X/YZ% into these tickers.” You made it sound like what you want to do is already possible on Robinhood, but then you mentioned rebalancing. If you intend to manually rebalance every week, 2 week, month, etc… just keep on M1 and press the rebalance button. Which tickers get bought on any specific day don’t matter, by using a DCA buying pattern you will effectively buy in at the average price, getting closer and closer to realizing that ideal the longer your DCA continues. 

tyranids

Why not just hold a mix you’re comfortable with and use rebalancing bands instead of time based? That will capture volatility or shifts in sentiment as soon as it happens rather than waiting some predetermined amount of time.

tyranids

orks and SPACE MARINES

tyranids

give it to me

tyranids

why no transparent caseback and such flat dial?

tyranids

Bitcoin and gold. If you don’t believe in either of those, then the correct answer has to be long term government bonds. Hard assets if you believe the bonds will be valued worthless, long term treasuries if you think fed rates down —> long term bonds up. It somewhat depends on your time horizon. Next year? Nobody really knows. 5-10+ years from now? I’d say central bank money printing isn’t going to slow down anytime soon, and interest on debt alone is already a massive proportion of government budgets around the world, especially in the U.S.

tyranids

Yeah Strike makes that very easy. Stack extra when you get jumps down too.

tyranids

That really depends as well. Retail likes to “take profits,” long term buyers like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds don’t sell assets based on price targets. If buyers believe Bitcoin is a new monetary asset class, then that means it is treated as a new allocation target in their portfolio. As market cap grows and Bitcoin is a larger percentage of “total asset market,” those permanent allocations will increase to reflect that. Harvard allocated 2% because Bitcoin is approximately 2% of total market.

tyranids

I mean I don’t actually think the price will fall nearly that low. Below $70k would honestly shock me, that’s nearly 50% pullback from current all time high, and we have a new structural buying that never existed before. The size of capital buying Bitcoin today is orders of magnitude greater than 2020 or before.

tyranids

This makes the current state look extremely overextended, could easily see a low in the next year around 35k. 

tyranids

if it's a cutaway like death star, I riot.